"I for one welcome our insect overlords" - The Politics Thread

[dibo]

Summary - foreign workers are not the problem, dodgy Australian bosses are.

 

[Mumbles]

Ohh Mr John Maitland you naughty boy!
Another union grub hiding behind the ALP's skirt.
Piss them all off and regain some credibility people.

 

[dibo]

Every organisation has its shonks - the Labor movement is 2 million strong, so of course we have our share.

Obeid is the godfather in all this, and I'm glad to say I'm part of that wing of the ALP that has always opposed the Obeid group. McDonald was in the Left, but was punted long before the ICAC business, and a Premier (from the Left) punted him from the ministry before 'Obeid's girl' Kenneally reinstated him.

 

[midfielder]

The Australian Moment ... How we were made for these times ... by George Megalogenis

This is a book I just finished rates all the PM from Gough to Kevin07 ... says we have prepared the country better than almost all other nations and states we are the last rich country standing .... recommend to anyone who like political / economic history...

 

[dibo]

Yep, pretty good read.

 

[Mumbles]

Every organisation has its shonks - the Labor movement is 2 million strong, so of course we have our share.

Obeid is the godfather in all this, and I'm glad to say I'm part of that wing of the ALP that has always opposed the Obeid group. McDonald was in the Left, but was punted long before the ICAC business, and a Premier (from the Left) punted him from the ministry before 'Obeid's girl' Kenneally reinstated him.

One wonders whether it is at possible for either party to be clean of these sort of grubs and focus on running the country in the best interest of the people. I think not. You can only hope for more good guys than bad.

We are still the lucky country or treasure island as some call it.
Tough times still ahead though.

 

[Mumbles]

The Australian Moment ... How we were made for these times ... by George Megalogenis

This is a book I just finished rates all the PM from Gough to Kevin07 ... says we have prepared the country better than almost all other nations and states we are the last rich country standing .... recommend to anyone who like political / economic history...

This is a must read for anybody who wants a non-partisan assessment of how Australia survived the GFC. An intelligent and thoughtful assessment of the Australian reform agenda since Whitlam took office in 1972. Slightly depressing at the end because it is difficult to identify any true reformers in the current Parliament....the current batch seem to be more focussed on the short time and sound bites, rather than the hard work of presenting a considered policy position.


Sounds simple enough for me to read.

 

[dibo]

One wonders whether it is at possible for either party to be clean of these sort of grubs and focus on running the country in the best interest of the people. I think not. You can only hope for more good guys than bad.

We are still the lucky country or treasure island as some call it.
Tough times still ahead though.

If I compare the two major 'sides' in Federal politics right now, I see a party that does policy and a party that does politics. Politics is winning by the length of the straight.

If you take the budget situation for example - economists agree that the fall in terms of trade we're experiencing would normally bring the currency down. But because (in spite of everything you *hear* about the budget) the economy is reasonably strong, the budget is swinging back to balance and government debt is minimal our bonds are extremely popular and the currency has helium in it. This smashes Australian profits and we're *waaaaaaaaaay* off expected company tax revenues.

In response to falling international carbon prices the Government delays compensation until a time when the carbon prices recover. In response to the weak budget position they wind back increases family tax benefits.

In short, as circumstances change, the Government responds with policy tweaks.

This is what a government ought to do.

But if you listen to the Opposition, you'd think that it's all about broken promises. The Government can't control (and economists didn't foresee) the extremely unusual interaction of the terms of trade and currency that we're seeing that caused the writedowns in revenues. In the spirit of 'keeping promises' we're meant to assume that governments should simply switch their brains off and cling to 'promises' for good or bad.

It's the same story with the carbon price, mining tax, Gonski, DisabilityCare... all of these things are adjusted when circumstances change. Life isn't black and white. It requires flexibility, adaptation and... thought.

It would be the easiest thing in the world to sit there and do nothing that might offend people but we'd never get anything done. You'd have people saying things like:

Compulsory superannuation is one of the biggest con jobs ever foisted by government on the Australian people.​

Or

Compulsory superannuation is possibly the greatest confidence trick of the last decade.​

They were both statements of Tony Abbott's in 1995. It's pretty similar to some of the more extreme things he's said about the carbon price - phrases like "wrecking ball" and "python squeeze" come to mind, and have just as little truth to them.

The only reason he's not going after the NDIS (for example) is because he'll have enough politically advisers in backrooms to know that taking on the "spit and dribble set" is a political nightmare - a phalanx of mechanical wheelchairs advancing on Parliament House is the sort of thing that wakes opposition leaders in a cold sweat.

It's good policy, and it's taken work to put together, and it's going to cost us all a little bit of money. But it's going to make a real difference to people - not just people who are disabled now, but people who might become disabled in the future. And whether that's you or someone you know or nobody you'll ever meet in your life, it's the right thing to do to give people greater opportunities to live well.

Abbott's first instinct was to oppose it, and now he wants to ensure Labor doesn't claim credit. The simple fact is that it would never have happened under an Abbott government.

That's the difference between the two parties at the moment. Policy vs politics.

 

[hasbeen]

The real difference between the two major parties is that one is on the nose and the other is even more on the nose. Like asking a condemned man if he'd rather be hanged or shot.

 

[hasbeen]

Good party-line stuff Dibo, however, no matter how hard I try to stretch my imagination, I just can't get close to even half-believing "the budget is swinging back to balance".

It went from revenue shortfalls of 7 to 12 to 17 billion in just over a week. Hardly swinging back eh?

 

[midfielder]

I can honestly say I have never seen the Federal Government and Opposition in such poor light.... I dread to think of either of em running the country..

Deep down I get the feeling both sides are very pool driven and lack knowledge in excepting advise, implementing programs and appointing independent people into key public servant roles... the issues pertaining to the Mining Resources Tax is a reflection of correct policy gone wrong ... last night on lateline I saw that the big miners had recorded billions of dollars of assets in MRT offsets.... A PM was sacked.. other huge political issues and for crumbs ... Last night on 10 news Greg Combay [spelt wrong] was saying because the carbon price had fallen to $4.50 it helped industry and lowered its cost as it had been budgeted for $29.00 ... ERRROOOO so why not say if it was zero they would be better off again because that's what you really said ...

As I see it Federal governments have been for the last hhhhmmmm 25 years or so trying to take over what the State Governments do .. the perfect example is education where the Federal Governments keeps telling the states what to do.... but my experience is the Federal Public Servants try this one size fits all and lack the knowledge and experience of the State Public Servants and they just keep farking it up...

Both the ALP & Libs [more so the ALP] as I see it anyway don't much have quality outside maybe a few on each side...

Could be as Tony Blair said feeding the 24/7 News shows and increasing blogger world when anyone can say anything is difficult if not impossible...

The media does not help much either as I see it today many broadcasters have chosen a side and more or less see every issue as left or right ... listen to Alan Jones .. read Mike Carlton ...

In my humble opinion I have never seen a worst Federal government that today's ALP... and have never seen a worst opposition than today's ...

So my vote is going to the government that changes the tax system the most ... should see me get more work....

 

[dibo]

Good party-line stuff Dibo, however, no matter how hard I try to stretch my imagination, I just can't get close to even half-believing "the budget is swinging back to balance".

It went from revenue shortfalls of 7 to 12 to 17 billion in just over a week. Hardly swinging back eh?

The Budget will probably come in at a deficit of $10 billion - $12 billion (if you believe the commentators). that's come in from $43.7 billion last year, so approximately $30 billion came off the deficit this year.

This is probably too fast, in all honesty. That's about 2% of GDP taken off because of federal government fiscal rebalancing alone, and as we've seen the private sector isn't running at full speed yet.

We're still growing, but while rates are coming down and inflation is sluggish, that speed of fiscal consolidation is certainly more on the too fast side than too slow.

There's a lot more to governing than whether the budget is in surplus.

 

[hasbeen]

Thanks Dibo. Straight out of the Party HQ manual. If we're now looking at a $17 billion shortfall, and the budget deficit is predicted at 10b or 12b, then surely before this writing down there would have been a 5 to 7 billion budget surplus?

As for "as we've seen the private sector isn't running at full speed yet." - Did you lift that straight from Swanny's handbook? And what on earth does it mean?

 

[dibo]

Thanks Dibo. Straight out of the Party HQ manual. If we're now looking at a $17 billion shortfall, and the budget deficit is predicted at 10b or 12b, then surely before this writing down there would have been a 5 to 7 billion budget surplus?

Two things:

1. There's no such thing as a 'Party HQ manual', and even if there were, that wouldn't make any fact in it untrue just because Labor says it. If you think I'm wrong, say where I'm wrong, don't just say "blah blah, party hack, of course you'd say that".
2. There have been spending cuts and deferrals through the course of this year that bring the budget in, but can't keep it in surplus when company tax revenues aren't recovering at anywhere near the expected rate.

As for "as we've seen the private sector isn't running at full speed yet." - Did you lift that straight from Swanny's handbook? And what on earth does it mean?

It means (for reasons I explained in a bit more detail above)companies aren't making the profits we'd expect given the current levels of economic growth, inflation, unemployment, etc. This leads to reduced company tax revenues (you don't pay tax on profits you're not making) and means the budget stays in deficit.

 

[dibo]

P.S: The dollar's finally starting to fall again, which will ease the pressure on business and profits will start to recover. This means that the Mad Monk will probably have considerably better revenues than the present government has had.

Add to that they'll ditch their paid parental leave scheme, they'll ditch the insane 'direct action' scheme (and keep the carbon price - *can't wait* for that press conference) and cut any program that offends their sensitive conservative hearts and they'll probably roar into surplus, without changing much at all.

 

[hasbeen]

"and they'll probably roar into surplus, without changing much at all."

Then why aren't the current government?

"companies aren't making the profits we'd expect given the current levels of economic growth, inflation, unemployment,"

Yet Swanny will have us believe the economy is going gangbusters.

" the Mad Monk"

Oh dear, resorted to ad hominem attacks now.

"blah blah, party hack,"

I didn't call you that, but are you?

 

[dibo]

"and they'll probably roar into surplus, without changing much at all."

Then why aren't the current government?

"companies aren't making the profits we'd expect given the current levels of economic growth, inflation, unemployment,"

Yet Swanny will have us believe the economy is going gangbusters.

" the Mad Monk"

Oh dear, resorted to ad hominem attacks now.

"blah blah, party hack,"

I didn't call you that, but are you?

in order:

1. the revenues *will* recover, they haven't yet
2. the economy is going strong: economic growth at 2.9%, inflation at 2.5%, unemployment at 5.5%. Find me any other advanced western economy in that boat?
3. says the guy who uses party affiliation as a rebuttal rather than facts
4. am a party member and have never made any effort to hide it.

 

[scottmac]

"and they'll probably roar into surplus, without changing much at all."

Then why aren't the current government?

Too much is emphasis is placed on the surplus or lack there of.
The only reason this is such a big talking point is because the Government promised they would have a budget surplus & they wont. Abbott latches onto the big "you cant trust this Government" line which really is a position that anyone would take in opposition if given the same circumstance.
The shame in all of this is that the opposition has been handed the ammunition they need on a platter & everything that the Government could point towards as progress has fallen by the wayside due to some ineptitude at politics & dodgy characters.

Being a labour voter myself & being from Abbotts electorate, I'm quite looking forward to him being PM cause unless the topic is the surf club or the audience is a bunch of blokes the guy can't string 2 f**king words together without tripping on a landmine.

 

[Mumbles]

Being a labour voter myself & being from Abbotts electorate, I'm quite looking forward to him being PM cause unless the topic is the surf club or the audience is a bunch of blokes the guy can't string 2 f**king words together without tripping on a landmine.

Agree!
And on a positive note, the mines will turn the taps back on, projects will come out of mothballs, thousands of medium and small businesses with be spared from bankruptcy and we'll get by until a competent leader emerges.
Selfish me!

 

[midfielder]

Tho's on the budget anyone....