Turbulence (then calm sailing, then turbulence) thread.

[nearlyyellow]

The one thing Sobral didn't mention in his article is that Greater Sydney *needs* another team. This team should catch all of South Western Sydney, say the triangle bounded by Penrith - Liverpool - Campbelltown. Oh, wait a 'mo, can't do that can we? This would be encroaching on sacred cow territory, it's part of the WSW catchment area.

 

[dibo]

Also the story doesn't tell of the 2000 units within walking distance of the Stadium that are either approved or seeking approval by Gosford City Council in their B6 Enterprise corridor (from the race track to East Gosford)
and that this area is the focus of council and state goverment push in the local region . More housing close to facilities and a predicted 65000 more people for the Coast in the next 20 yrs. Remember the A-League is now 10yrs old, time goes quick.

Absolutely right. With some sort of luck I'm going to be one of the 65,000 in the next year or so, and with 2,000 units we get a further ~5,000 people moving within walking distance. Now that we're beyond masterplans and pretty drawings and instead have actual DAs before Council, Gosford is going to become a proper 'city' very quickly. We've got a pretty pro-development Council at the moment too - the likes of Malcolm Brooks are but a memory, but we're left with a legacy of three decades of stagnation that will take some time to erase.

The one thing Sobral didn't mention in his article is that Greater Sydney *needs* another team. This team should catch all of South Western Sydney, say the triangle bounded by Penrith - Liverpool - Campbelltown. Oh, wait a 'mo, can't do that can we? This would be encroaching on sacred cow territory, it's part of the WSW catchment area.

I'm not sure this is 100% true - I think that they'll test the market a little bit and work out that they can sorta point WSW more northwards into the NW growth corridor and create a new Liverpool based side drawing from the SW growth corridor.

I honestly think there's room for a north shore club too (one of their own, not the Mariners), but they're going to need a ground. Perhaps if they did up NSO and brought back Northern Spirit?

As the league expands, the TV deals expand, the number of derbies increase, the interest in the league both broadens and deepens. FWIW - on the paranoia thing, media outlets get really friendly really fast if they feel like they're serving an audience that makes them money. If we grow the audience...

 

[midfielder]

Busy day so I will be brief [unusual I know]

Back to the theme of expanding Sydney without doubt is the way to go no where else in Australia does Football have such support especially in the south west ..

However just on games / products etc... and remember the Asian Cup will or should have a huge flow on effect for the ACL competition..

Just consider 10 teams * 3 rounds is 27 * 5 or 135 games.... 12 teams by 3 rounds is 33 * 6 or 198 games + FFA Cup and and increasing awareness of the ACL comp...

With a 12 team competition 198 A-League games + finals, 32 broadcast-able FFA Cup matches, at least 18 ACL matches + Socceroo's say 7 matches .. arguably 260 quality matches + the W-League.

AFL & the NRL have 198 matches + finals and RL SOO and some test ... but Football will have much more product to sell and by a long way smaller squads ..

 

[localpom]

Also the story doesn't tell of the 2000 units within walking distance of the Stadium that are either approved or seeking approval by Gosford City Council in their B6 Enterprise corridor (from the race track to East Gosford)
and that this area is the focus of council and state goverment push in the local region . More housing close to facilities and a predicted 65000 more people for the Coast in the next 20 yrs. Remember the A-League is now 10yrs old, time goes quick.

Spot on. We are a developing region and more importantly alot of the population are going to be more centralised around Gosford as it becomes a major city. This is happening and alot of new residents are going to embrace the Mariners.

 

[sydmariner]

Perhaps if they did up NSO and brought back Northern Spirit?

It would be nice but then I'd have to support 2 teams which would be a problem if they played each other or were playing home games @ the same time

 

[nearlyyellow]

Also the story doesn't tell of the 2000 units within walking distance of the Stadium that are either approved or seeking approval by Gosford City Council in their B6 Enterprise corridor (from the race track to East Gosford)
and that this area is the focus of council and state goverment push in the local region . More housing close to facilities and a predicted 65000 more people for the Coast in the next 20 yrs. Remember the A-League is now 10yrs old, time goes quick.

I've done a bit of research
This site is the results of research commissioned by Gosford City Council: http://forecast.id.com.au/gosford and updated in June 2014
This site is the results of research commissioned by Wyong Shire Council: http://forecast.id.com.au/wyong and updated in July 2012
Same crowd doing the forecasts, commissioned by both Councils, although not current at the same date.
And some interesting historic data by the Central Coast Business Review: http://www.ccbusinessreview.com.au/articles/777

So, what can we make of all this data?
Gosford's population will increase by approx. 20,000 (including the dibo family and expansions ) in a 22 year period from 2014 to 2036.

Wyong's population will increase by approx. 46,000 in a 17 year period from 2014 to 2031
So that's about the 65k. increase you are talking about.

Same crowd doing the forecasts for Parramatta City Council http://forecast.id.com.au/parramatta and updated in January 2014.
Paramatta alone will have a population increase of approx. 52,000 in the same 22 year period as Gosford from 2014 to 2036. Doesn't include other conceivable WSW catchment areas such as Bankstown, Blacktown, Penrith, Ryde, The Hills Shire, Just to name a few that are on that .id website. GOK what the overall projected population increase is in that total probable WSW catchment area.

I've just realised, we're really, really up against it! We are pushing uphill without a shovel. There's no way our population increase can keep up with the others.
I'm depressed now.
Doomed, doomed, I tell you.

 

[dibo]

Nah, we're fine. Increased pop growth in Sydney means more clubs there. 65,000 more people on the CC helps us, no matter what's going on elsewhere.

 

[Yoda]

Nah, we're fine. Increased pop growth in Sydney means more clubs there. 65,000 more people on the CC helps us, no matter what's going on elsewhere.

I think it's the core % that we need to increase. We have approx. 5000 members from a population of 300000-ish, with an average crowd around 10k. Maybe 1000 of those members are North Sydney/other regions based leaving 4000 or so. This means approx. 1.5% of coasties are members. 36000 population increase if current rates continue means only about 1000 new members over the next 20 years and average crowd up by a further 1000 or so. Doesn't bode well. The club needs to generate a higher percentage of members from the existing population base and hope that the next generation have a greater take up rate than what we are at now.

That most concerning fact is that we have punched well above our weight for the past 10 years. What happens if we have 2, 3 or 4 lean seasons results wise?? The majority on this forum will be there no matter what, but what of the rest of the supporters?

 

[nearlyyellow]

For anyone bored or confused with population tables and statistics this NSW Govt. site is good. Drillable map, mouseable LAG highlight, mouse on graph line shows popup box of population at any point along the curve. http://www.planning.nsw.gov.au/en-au/deliveringhomes/populationandhouseholdprojections/yourarea.aspx
Hmmm, at this rate soon we'll all be population scholars.

 

[nearlyyellow]

I think it's the core % that we need to increase. We have approx. 5000 members from a population of 300000-ish, with an average crowd around 10k. Maybe 1000 of those members are North Sydney/other regions based leaving 4000 or so. This means approx. 1.5% of coasties are members. 36000 population increase if current rates continue means only about 1000 new members over the next 20 years and average crowd up by a further 1000 or so. Doesn't bode well. The club needs to generate a higher percentage of members from the existing population base and hope that the next generation have a greater take up rate than what we are at now.

That most concerning fact is that we have punched well above our weight for the past 10 years. What happens if we have 2, 3 or 4 lean seasons results wise?? The majority on this forum will be there no matter what, but what of the rest of the supporters?

Seems we may be uncovering some of what is driving or concerning Mike Charlesworth and his Management Team to derive expansion out of our region.

 

[dibo]

Across the Sydney basin (hardly a hotbed of fervent sporting support when compared against Melbourne or London), counting up members and average crowds of all AFL, NRL and HAL clubs, you get a total club membership of 200,000. If you sum their average crowds you also get 200,000 (rough numbers). That's 1/20 or 5%. Given there's no NRL club, we're not at saturation. Until/unless we've got 15,000 fans at games and 15,000 members we can't say we've got everything that can be drawn from this market.

 

[Roy Law]

Seems we may be uncovering some of what is driving or concerning Mike Charlesworth and his Management Team to derive expansion out of our region.

The way they are going I will be quite happy to drive them out of the region

 

[Roy Law]

I've done a bit of research
I've just realised, we're really, really up against it! We are pushing uphill without a shovel. There's no way our population increase can keep up with the others.
I'm depressed now.
Doomed, doomed, I tell you.

So nothing has changed then?

 

[kevrenor]

http://theworldgame.sbs.com.au/blog/2014/09/24/key-successful-league-expansion

Vitor Sobral is of the opinion the Mariners should play out of Berowra if they want to engage the North Sydney area.

I know Vitor. Vitor knows football, but (as well as being from brisbane) knows bugger all about the Central Coast or northern Sydney.

 

[Wombat]

I know Vitor. Vitor knows football, but (as well as being from brisbane) knows bugger all about the Central Coast or northern Sydney.

So probably a pretty dumb article for him to write then.
The Central Coast awaits his apology.

 

[pjennings]

Seems we may be uncovering some of what is driving or concerning Mike Charlesworth and his Management Team to derive expansion out of our region.

I'm not so convinced. If the majority of the 65,000 growth is around Gosford CBD or easily accessible to Gosford CBD i.e along the train line or better bus transport, then I think we can have a better conversion rate than we currently have with the new comers. The Central Coast is actually a very large, sparsely populated area. A heavier density 'central' Central Coast could probably aim for a greater take-up.

 

[eenfish]

I know Vitor. Vitor knows football, but (as well as being from brisbane) knows bugger all about the Central Coast or northern Sydney.

I think you're right, Kev. Very poor geographical choice, it seems like he just picked a spot geographically half way between Gosford and Sydney CBD.

Just be clear, as well, I don't think he suggest the Mariners play out of Berowra right now but rather suggesting we expand there and make a stadium, which is ludicrous. Mariners need a 20k~ seater, that is some serious coin that nobody will want to shell out. And most certainly not in Berowra.

 

[sydmariner]

I think you're right, Kev. Very poor geographical choice, it seems like he just picked a spot geographically half way between Gosford and Sydney CBD.

Just be clear, as well, I don't think he suggest the Mariners play out of Berowra right now but rather suggesting we expand there and make a stadium, which is ludicrous. Mariners need a 20k~ seater, that is some serious coin that nobody will want to shell out. And most certainly not in Berowra.

Isn't bluetongue a 20,000 all seater

 

[dibo]

Reading comprehension is not your strong suit, is it?

 

[Wombat]

I think you're right, Kev. Very poor geographical choice, it seems like he just picked a spot geographically half way between Gosford and Sydney CBD.

Just be clear, as well, I don't think he suggest the Mariners play out of Berowra right now but rather suggesting we expand there and make a stadium, which is ludicrous. Mariners need a 20k~ seater, that is some serious coin that nobody will want to shell out. And most certainly not in Berowra.

Correct. So one of the most stupid articles ever written....even by an SBS journo ( even if he is a mate of Kevs).