http://www.theroar.com.au/2011/03/09/grand-final-preview-cream-to-rise-to-the-top/
Grand Final Preview: the cream to rise to the top
he scene was Bluetongue Stadium, a wet Sunday afternoon, on the last weekend of November last year with the Central Coast Mariners taking on the Brisbane Roar. At half time, Graham Arnold had an admission to make: he had got it horribly wrong.
Whether it was a private thought, a whisper in the ear of his assistant Phil Moss, or an open admission in the dressing-room, Arnold put his hand up.
Diverting from his diamond midfield for the first time since he took control, Arnold went into the week 16 match with a 4-2-3-1.
The objective, it seemed, was the sit back and frustrate the Roar. Having spent the past few years under the tutelage of Pim Verbeek, one could understand why he went down that path.
The Roar had been on a 13 game undefeated run, the start of a recording breaking run that now sits at 28, had their confidence flowing on the back of four games in two weeks, so there was enough logic in Arnold’s plan.
No doubt he thought the best way, perhaps the only way, to stifle Ange Postecoglou’s men was to sit deep, congest the midfield and stop them from playing.
Little doubt he was also reflecting on the Roar’s comfortable 2-0 win at Suncorp the first time the sides met a month or so earlier.
But the Mariners’ lack of initiative and negative mind-frame played right into the Brisbane’s hands.
By half time, trailing 3-0 to a Jean Carlos Solorzano brace and a Mitch Nichols goal, it was time to revert to his preferred diamond midfield 4-4-2, so on came Daniel McBreen and Adam Kwasnik for Matt Simon and Mustafa Amini.
While the Mariners lost the second half due to two late Roar goals, it was much more even contest as they at least had a go.
Since then, the sides have met three times, and it’s been a far more even contest every time, with two games drawn.
Indeed, three time during those games the Mariners have led, only to be pegged back late by a team that refuses to accept defeat.
Essentially, what Arnold has realised over time is that there is no point dropping 10 men behind the ball against the Roar.
If you do that, Postecoglou’s men pick up every loose ball and start their build up again, playing out from the back with no pressure, moving the ball quickly, playing their diagonal balls, moving, and eventually breaking teams down.
What the Mariners have down well of late against Brisbane is play a little higher in defence, push on in midfield and attack, and then utilise the wide areas on the counter-attack, with Patricio Perez particularly clever in running off Eric Paartalu and finding some space out wide.
In truth, the Mariners haven’t always used this space as effectively and efficiently as they might have.
For starters, they haven’t always been as ruthless as they should have in the final third, Perez often forced to hold up the ball to wait for team-mates to catch up.
This has partly been due to the Roar’s defensive transition. It’s not the best part of their game, but nor should it be under-estimated. It will likely be a big focus for Postecoglou this week.
For the Mariners to have any chance, they will need to take their chances in forward transition, and swiftly. If Perez’s hammy doesn’t respond in time, Amini’s role in carrying the Mariners forward becomes crucial.
If they can’t make anything of the rapid forward thrusts, winning free-kicks in and around the box will key. Defending them isn’t a Roar forte.
For all their attack, Postecoglou will be focussing on the detail in defence.
The key at the other end will be whether they can grab an early goal. While Brisbane have made a habit of coming from behind, perhaps too often for the manager’s liking, there’s no doubt the pressure will mount if they go behind in the decider.
Much was made of the way the Mariners took it to them in the second leg of the major semi final, but if Kosta Barbarouses had converted either of his excellent one-on-one chances in the first quarter of the match, the tie would have been over.
Barbarouses has improved his finishing no-end throughout the season, but he and Solorzano will have to be at their ruthless best in the early going.
With Thomas Broich proving that he can raise his game when his team needed it most on the second half of the second leg, the Mariners back four is likely to be hard pressed dealing with Brisbane’s potent front three.
While you should never ignore the claims of the Mariners, as likely a team as any to spoil the party, I’m predicting the cream will rise to the top and that the Brisbane Roar will complete the Premiership-Championship double with a 2-0 win, with Solorzano and Broich bagging the goals.
It would be a repeat of the Brisbane Strikers’s winning scoreline in the NSL grand final win over Sydney United 14 years ago, but, more than that, it would be a fitting reward for what has been a truly outstanding season.
