R9 Champions v Smurfs

[Gratis]

I think we'll win this one 2-1

 

[eenfish]

Either way, I reckon it'll be tough. Or we could turn a corner, our attack will finally click, and we'll win 5-0.

 

[MagpieMariner]

Just getting some shots on target would please me.

 

[FFC Mariner]

Just passing to someone in a yellow shirt would please me

 

[sydmariner]

I think we'll win this one 2-1

8-O

 

[VicMariner]

Ball gag and whip flogging like rd 5 last season I hope.

 

[true believer]

oddly enough .we've had the usual slow start , the usual money problems .
the usual end is nigh .,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 4 nil yellows , just quietly .

 

[bikinigirl]

. i think mossy has to decide if he makes any changes to the front three

. except for the brent/zac/siep competition the back five now seems pretty set ... debate will no doubt continue around the hutch/monty/caceres choices - if sydney are going to continue their bully tactics against us then the choice may be easier

. i don't think many would seriously consider shifting mikey and flores out of the starting 11 ... so it becomes a choice of two - and what do you do?

. do you keep dukey out wide? i don't like it ... he is s striker and we need a striker (as does australia). he still seems a bit lost in his new role and his positioning can become confused as a result. last year the same thing was tried with bernie but he had a more rigid and practiced structure around him. duke is trying to adjust to a new role in the system at the same time as those playing nearest him are learning that system (storm, flores and matty are all new to this lineup)

. matty has struggled also. sure he still has the unrelenting endeavour of the past but he seems to have lost some pace. his close balls skills need to improve if he is to play as a lone striker in this league ... but it seems that have actually regressed while he has been away

. mcbreen may have lost his identity too and may be unsure of he is supposed to be simon or flores ... so plays a bit of both but neither to great effect - bumping into people and constantly trying flicks and glances off the outside of the boot

. mile has been a calming influence when he has been on lately and perhaps this is the answer. he is not likely to be bullied, knows the system and the players around him ... what he has lost in pace may be covered by experience and guile. i think we have struggled for pace across the park so there will be no real change there. put him on the left and maybe mikey and mr percival's scottish/south african/kiwi understanding can grow

. the time may be right to calm down, re-stabilise and and find a win:

duke
mile + flores + mikey
hutch/caceres/monty*
rosey + brent/zac/siep^ + trent + mr p
still can't type it​

* pick two ... any two
^ brent deserves another shot at it

 

[Gratis]

I like it - a lot.
Brent definitely and Monty to start

 

[dibo]

McBreen looks a helluva lot sharper than Simon. Duke looks lost out wide. Could a fairly radical shift isn't in order?

When we had Amini, we'd play a diamond but it really worked out in attack more like a 4-1-3-2. In defence it flattened to our familiar 4-4-2. We could change things around to look a little like that now:

Reddy
Roux-Sainsbury-Griffiths-Rose
Hutchinson
McGlinchey-Flores-Caceres
Duke-McBreen​

Alternatively, I talked about this last week as a bad idea because it doesn't suit Flores at all, but when you're not playing particularly well there are no bad ideas.* Switch to a 4-2-2-2 like Melbourne Victory?

Reddy
Roux-Sainsbury-Griffiths-Rose
Caceres-Hutchinson
Flores-McGlinchey
McBreen----------------Duke​

It doesn't particularly suit Flores, but it's a way to change it up.

THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM: a lot of our options don't particularly suit Flores because of the way we defend. Our 4-4-2 in defence sends Flores high. That works if we're playing 5 nominal midfielders and 1 nominal striker.

It doesn't suit us if we play with two strikers, because we're not going to rotate so that one of the strikers goes to a flank so Flores can sit out up top. We're also not going to chuck Flores deep in the scrum and ask him to brawl it out.

It's a bit of a dilemma...

For this reason, I think we're actually *very* unlikely to change shape massively, especially to something with two strikers ahead of Flores. My best guess:

Reddy
Roux-Sainsbury-Griffiths-Rose
Monty-Hutchinson
Duke-Flores-McGlinchey
McBreen​

Alternatives -

• Caceres could go wide left, McGlinchey to the right, Duke up top, McBreen to the bench
• Simon to the top instead of McBreen
• Caceres for Monty (I'd rather have Monty this weekend)
• Griffiths out for Seip or Anderson - seems unlikely

Really hard to know, but I don't think we've hit our best combination yet. We're a little unbalanced and out of sorts. Hopefully the training track is helping us to iron out the kinks.

*This is a massive, massive lie, but it suits my argument for the moment.

 

[localpom]

Football is a funny game ( massive cliche!). Come Saturday night if we get good weather, a big crowd and an emphatic win all this negativity will be all gone. Oh f**k, please let it be all 3!

 

[midfielder]

My reading of the tea leafs is we are not as strong this year and every other teams is stronger ...

We are getting closed down [to easily] and losing to much ball .... we need ball players more than runners me thinks... with this in mind Caceres would be in my starting team and I would choose Monty over Hutch... Griffiths HHHMMMm or Anderson ..... can't decide ... Mile would start in my team because he can hold and pass .... Be inclined to put Duke up front as he can also hold a ball up front and play people in at times...

Its good I am not the coach...

I hate SFC more than the SCUM... so lets hope for as others have said a good weather day and another 7 goals for us...

 

[nebakke]

I know that it's probably insanity and tbh... I don't recall what his skills in that field used to be like, but when Matty left, we were playing the 442 diamond, commonly with him and Bernie or him and Kwazzah at the front right?
Would it be worth seeing if Duke could rediscover his targetting provess by swapping him and Mattie and seeing what happens? I mean, technically we're playing a striker in mid anyway... My immediate feel is that Matty would fare better than BigMac in that role.
Not just that, but based on someone else's comment - sorry I can't remember who right now - if we assume that the striker currently receives more with the back to the goal... That was one of the things that BigMac noted as an issue for him prior to last season... He felt that he got to spend more time looking at the goal so-to-speak, because of the how we played last year and he credited that with some of the reason for his increased efficiency.

Oooooor... Perhaps it's time to try Fitz out again and put Duke up the front to see if he can hit the target when he doesn't have to work it in from the side... I think I've mentioned it before, as we did it against Brisbane, but we seem to be heading back towards trying to play the ball down the side and then crossing it in... That worked in a pre-Ange-with-Brissy world, I don't think it's been efficient in the A-league since then really. If flores is closed down too much, I'm guessing we need someone who can play the ball in and go from there... Seeing as we ahve tossed him around a bit anyway, what'd Caceres look like in-line with Flores and WeeMac?

D'oh! Forgot Mile... He's actually been a pleasant surprise sofar this season I think... Dunno if he'd do for a full game, but I suppose he could be an option on the side as well, he's seemed efficient there before.

 

[dibo]

We are getting closed down [to easily] and losing to much ball .... we need ball players more than runners me thinks... with this in mind Caceres would be in my starting team and I would choose Monty over Hutch...

I just don't get this "Monty is better on the ball than Hutch" business. I don't see it with my eyes, and because I wanted to go on something a bit more solid than that I took a look at the stats, which don't support it at all.

FourFourTwo stats zone lets you dig into each game and breaks down each and every play. Passes, shots etc. http://www.fourfourtwo.com/statszone/results/214-2013

I thought that the best measure here to get a hold on what we're on about here is successful passes/passes attempted and successful forward passes/forward passes attempted. I pulled numbers on the games up to the Brisbane game, because I didn't want the Perth and Melbourne games where Monty missed out a lot of minutes to skew the numbers.



Hutch made 53 more passes and 11 fewer unsuccessful passes.

He made 22 more forward passes and 11 fewer unsuccessful passes.

He's got 7% higher success generally, 9% higher success passing forward.

His proportion of successful forward passes to total successful passes is 2% lower, his proportion of attempted forward passes to total attempted passes is 5% lower, his proportion of unsuccessful forward passes to total unsuccessful passes is 5% lower.

The numbers on errors when not passing forward are a little thin - each has only lost the ball when not playing forward just 4 times in 5 games, but there's a clear difference in errors generally and successful passes generally.

These are the first set of numbers I thought to look at, and don't look at chances created, assists or anything else, so they're pretty raw and I'm not going to claim they show anything other than that which is obvious - Hutch clearly moves the ball more and more successfully. Hutch plays the ball 'not forward' *slightly* more than Monty, but makes more passes and fewer errors.

 

[midfielder]

Hutch or Monty .... I can go with either ... my preference is for Monty as he breaks play down more ... but its a 50 50 call ...

 

[Kareem]

Those stats are pointless

Monty is a much better defensive mid than Hutch
Breaks up play better, and drives forward much better.

And Hutch plays deeper than monty does, so that contributes to the above stats!

But I will admit if you were to play Monty in Hutch's exact position then I think Hutch would be better...
i.e. in that very very deep lying midfielder role, dropping into defence to play the ball out.

Just like if you played Hutch in Monty's more advanced position (still a DM, but not dropping into the defensive line), Monty would be better

So if we only want to use one of Hutch and Monty it depends on the style of football we want to play and the system!
And IMO Hutch dropping deep doesn't suit us. We aren't Adelaide or the old Brisbane etc.

For the record...I'd start the Hutch/Monty duo for Victory, Wanderers, Roar, Adelaide.

I'd start Monty/Caceres for the rest.


But it was clear to see on Friday night that Moss is building his team around a deep lying Hutch...
Hope it works...

 

[true believer]

I just don't get this "Monty is better on the ball than Hutch" business. I don't see it with my eyes, and because I wanted to go on something a bit more solid than that I took a look at the stats, which don't support it at all.

FourFourTwo stats zone lets you dig into each game and breaks down each and every play. Passes, shots etc. http://www.fourfourtwo.com/statszone/results/214-2013

I thought that the best measure here to get a hold on what we're on about here is successful passes/passes attempted and successful forward passes/forward passes attempted. I pulled numbers on the games up to the Brisbane game, because I didn't want the Perth and Melbourne games where Monty missed out a lot of minutes to skew the numbers.

View attachment 114

Hutch made 53 more passes and 11 fewer unsuccessful passes.

He made 22 more forward passes and 11 fewer unsuccessful passes.

He's got 7% higher success generally, 9% higher success passing forward.

His proportion of successful forward passes to total successful passes is 2% lower, his proportion of attempted forward passes to total attempted passes is 5% lower, his proportion of unsuccessful forward passes to total unsuccessful passes is 5% lower.

The numbers on errors when not passing forward are a little thin - each has only lost the ball when not playing forward just 4 times in 5 games, but there's a clear difference in errors generally and successful passes generally.

These are the first set of numbers I thought to look at, and don't look at chances created, assists or anything else, so they're pretty raw and I'm not going to claim they show anything other than that which is obvious - Hutch clearly moves the ball more and more successfully. Hutch plays the ball 'not forward' *slightly* more than Monty, but makes more passes and fewer errors.

 

[true believer]

Unable to post because windows 8.1
Is total f'kn rubbish

 

[dibo]

Maybe you're just shit at computers.

 

[eenfish]

All these stats. Is there a football equivalent of sabermetrics now or something? I f**king hate sabermetrics.