Mariners vs Wellington at NSO - Game Talk

[Roy Law]

Good. Our future is bright on the Central Coast.

As I posted in the expansion thread:



So what happens when our crowds jump *and* we get TV money?

Taking the averages of our crowds for each visiting team, and multiplying them by 1 or 2 depending on how many home games we have against them, you get an average crowd of just over 11,000 - a jump of about 1,200 or about 13% on last year.

Averaging out the two you wind up with about 10,500, and that's probably a realistic long-term average. The thing is that now, that's not a bleeding millions proposition.

View attachment 111

Using the back of envelope calculations from before (expecting the break-even crowd to drop because of the new TV money), that means we go from a nearly $1m deficit to a break-even position (you can barely call that a surplus or a deficit when you're spending $8m per year - it's in the margin of error).

When we get to a position of no longer having a massive structural deficit, so things like investing in marketing no longer seem like a ridiculous extravagance - we're in a position to try spending to grow.

These are back-of-envelope things, but they're intended to provide some guide as to a realistic business scenario.

Is it really the back of an envelope? Won't the foldy down sticky bits get in the way? Why don't they use the flat fronty bit?

 

[Ancient Mariner]

No. Too wedded to reality.

Very sad, a small club squeezed between clubs representing two large population centres.

If we do not push out and expand we will always be small. We will find it more and more difficult to punch above our weight.

Keep thinking small we will stay small.

 

[Ancient Mariner]

I didn't really follow the NSL that closely, but from this it sounds like NSO will be very popular. (insert sarcasm smiley)

I was there and would prefer to quote Spirit drawing the club record NSL crowd which stood until A-League times in 2005. Definite potential.

The initial crowds did not decline due to NSO, they declined due to inept management. The move to Pitwater was not to get more crowds but for cheaper rent.

 

[FFC Mariner]

I suspect that the original article is absolutely accurate. No one has come out and denied they said what they did.

You can only imagine the distress this ArseClown causes the dedicated Coasties who work for him.

Ok the so called denial was pathetic and actually denied nothing. That's what happens when you panic I expect.

I loved the $15m investment in the CoE too. As a taxpayer, wasn't $10m of that ours?

 

[eenfish]

Speaking of which, do we actually know that they've been talking to MC and that it's not just Craig Thompson "representing" the team again?

From the SMH, there are quotes from the big man himself:

''I think what's more important is that there's a market in North Sydney that I believe is hungry for a professional sporting identity,'' Mariners owner Mike Charlesworth said. ''It's just difficult, as we all know, building a sustainable model with your club based in a relatively small community like Gosford.''

''One of the things I really need to do coming in as new owner is to look at all possibilities and build a sustainable long-term future,'' Charlesworth said. ''It's not sustainable, the losses that we're making exceeding $1 million a year. It's not sustainable for the Central Coast or for any particular owner, certainly not myself. So something has got to change and if it doesn't change their won't be a Central Coast Mariners, full stop. Finito.

''We have to make this work because that's the alternative, there is no football club, full stop, unless we do something. So that means a lot of work on the Central Coast and a lot of work in other regions.''

And from the North Sydney council:

The Mayor of North Sydney, Jilly Gibson, confirmed that discussions had already taken place over next year's fixtures.

''I was absolutely thrilled when he [Charlesworth] first approached us with this idea,'' Gibson said. ''He's expressed his desire to have more games.''

These are straight from the SMH article. Charlesworth has talked to North Sydney council and talked to the press.

 

[dibo]

Very sad, a small club squeezed between clubs representing two large population centres.

If we do not push out and expand we will always be small. We will find it more and more difficult to punch above our weight.

Keep thinking small we will stay small.

See, there's a step or two that is missing here.

1. Redefine Central Coast to suit your argument.
2. Move indeterminate number of games to NSO (now, fortunately for your argument, part of the Central Coast)
...
x-1. Fan base grows enormously.
x. PROFIT!!!

Between step 2 and step x-1, there's this mysterious gap.

I don't know what happens here, presumably all of us small town hicks learn our place and shut up and cop what's good for us, and presumably everyone in the northern suburbs of Sydney southern Central Coast develop a deep and abiding passion for a region that apparently they've lived in all along and nobody notices that it's a bloody stupid idea and nobody would ever get excited for a team that operates from a caravan and calls whatever patch of grass it happens to pull up on this weekend home.

Even if the Central Coast is too small*, there's nothing that makes anything from a token nod to the northern suburbs of Sydney southern Central Coast up to a full on part-time tenancy a solution.

There's no argument for why people who like the Mariners already aren't already going to games.

There's no argument for why people who don't already like the Mariners will jump on and haven't already jumped on one of the two clubs already in Sydney.

There's no argument for why it won't be a crushing blow to the morale and attachment for those unfortunate bunch of two-bit hicks who live and breathe the Central Coast from their homes on the actual Central Coast.

It's just ABC - Another Brainfart from Charlesworth.


*Something that is not yet convincingly argued by anyone, so I'm not at all willing to concede it.

 

[Ancient Mariner]

See, there's a step or two that is missing here.

1. Redefine Central Coast to suit your argument.
2. Move indeterminate number of games to NSO (now, fortunately for your argument, part of the Central Coast)
...
x-1. Fan base grows enormously.
x. PROFIT!!!

Between step 2 and step x-1, there's this mysterious gap.

I don't know what happens here, presumably all of us small town hicks learn our place and shut up and cop what's good for us, and presumably everyone in the northern suburbs of Sydney southern Central Coast develop a deep and abiding passion for a region that apparently they've lived in all along and nobody notices that it's a bloody stupid idea and nobody would ever get excited for a team that operates from a caravan and calls whatever patch of grass it happens to pull up on this weekend home.

Even if the Central Coast is too small*, there's nothing that makes anything from a token nod to the northern suburbs of Sydney southern Central Coast up to a full on part-time tenancy a solution.

There's no argument for why people who like the Mariners already aren't already going to games.

There's no argument for why people who don't already like the Mariners will jump on and haven't already jumped on one of the two clubs already in Sydney.

There's no argument for why it won't be a crushing blow to the morale and attachment for those unfortunate bunch of two-bit hicks who live and breathe the Central Coast from their homes on the actual Central Coast.

It's just ABC - Another Brainfart from Charlesworth.


*Something that is not yet convincingly argued by anyone, so I'm not at all willing to concede it.

Nice passion, good to see.

However, you are sounding like a Tasmanian talking about the mainland.

I will be at Bluetongue on Friday, I will be at NSO next month.

Others can hold their breath as long as they like.

 

[Wombat]

I'd cope with a handful of games in north syd a year but that'd be about it. any official move, or the majority of games move or there's a change of name etc. then I'll be one very unhappy chappy

I can kop 1 game a year only.

Im not sure that i trust Charlesworth enough to go to the NSO game now.

 

[Wombat]

In light of all this and with Arnie saying goodbye, would be great to get a decent crowd for Friday vs the Victory. Hopefully the rain gods are good to us.....i love that time slot as well. Friday night, big crowd, end of a working week, few beers watching the Mariners finally gel to perfection.

Keen as!!!

 

[gull]

This was very poor from Charlesworth.

I understand that he might be trying to rock the boat to get things happening (ie stadium rights), but to do so and cause so much distress to the existing members and fans is unforgivable. You only need a brief look over social media to see the angst that this has caused.

The "retraction" was a joke as well.

Rather than building up our first Friday night game of the year against a strong opponent the media, Charlesworth, and now the fans are talking about this. Idiotic.

I won't support any games at NSO, and will not renew my foundation membership next year if more games are announced. I supported the team when the crowds were much smaller, well before Charlesworth was around and others were building the club, but I will not support a team that plays "home" games 70 kilometres away.

The club may want to tread very carefully for a while as this has all the hallmarks of members and fans (nearly 10,000 per game on average) being taken for granted. It won't take long for them to find something else to do with that attitude....

 

[Wombat]

Very sad, a small club squeezed between clubs representing two large population centres.

If we do not push out and expand we will always be small. We will find it more and more difficult to punch above our weight.

Keep thinking small we will stay small.

Both clubs are inferior to us on and off the pitch and with smaller per capita crowds than us. We are doing quite nicely thank you and should top 10K average this year.
I think the future is bright for us on the Coast.

 

[Ancient Mariner]

This was very poor from Charlesworth.



I won't support any games at NSO, and will not renew my foundation membership next year if more games are announced. I supported the team when the crowds were much smaller, well before Charlesworth was around and others were building the club, but I will not support a team that plays "home" games 70 kilometres away.

Don't worry, you will start breathing again when you lose consciousness.

 

[Ancient Mariner]

Both clubs are inferior to us on and off the pitch and with smaller per capita crowds than us. We are doing quite nicely thank you and should top 10K average this year.
I think the future is bright for us on the Coast.

Cue Rocky theme.

 

[Myzer]

I understand that he might be trying to rock the boat to get things happening (ie stadium rights), but to do so and cause so much distress to the existing members and fans is unforgivable. You only need a brief look over social media to see the angst that this has caused.

I can't see how he is rocking the boat to get stadium rights when according to McKinna the Mariners didn't put in a tender for management rights.

 

[pjennings]

Very sad, a small club squeezed between clubs representing two large population centres.

If we do not push out and expand we will always be small. We will find it more and more difficult to punch above our weight.

Keep thinking small we will stay small.

Populations don't define the club.

Just ask Charlesworth's team of Leeds (population of 1.8mil) to those smaller areas like Liverpool and Manchester. There is no doubt which are the bigger clubs. We should be starting a petition to move LUFC to Manchester. It 's basically the same as what he is asking us to do.

 

[eenfish]

http://www.smh.com.au/sport/soccer/...green-enough-for-mariners-20131126-2y87i.html

Well the FFA and A-League have said that any move to NSO would not occur until the ground and facilities were better. Which would in turn increase the price of using the venue. Which would detract the incentive to move there.

It all seems like a very poorly planned and executed attempt to get press ahead of the North Sydney game, while simultaneously featuring a sutble swipe by Charlseworth that we, the current fans of the club, aren't doing enough to make them money. If this was an attempt to get more people going to games then I am not sure who exactly they were targeting on getting to games.

 

[bikinigirl]

. there are so many questions to all of this ... and most have been asked already. not just now but back when the wellington game was first mooted. there was a lot of heated discussion and one new member (on the forum) did pack up and leave ... i am now wondering if that new member was actually the mayor of north sydney

. not unlike gosford, they are trying to enliven the cbd. she has admitted that the place is dead outside of office hours ... so they need to import people anyway - doesn't sound like a market ready to tap. i have spoken to people that used to attend the spirit games after being caught up in the hype. they liked the idea of a few beers after work before heading to the game ... but it became old very quickly ... and the numbers dropped off accordingly. plus that would only work for friday night games which would be shown on fta air anyway. whichever way i look at this i can't see growth in our crowd numbers

. ok so maybe 20% of our members are from south of the river (although i think that 20% quote if from last year ... so could be far less than 1000) ... but is nso even convenient for them? i know many from the hornsby-eastwood corridor, the stanmore crew and some as far afield as sutherland. so yes, there are members there ... but they are not exactly within walking distance of nso

. of course the 'tongue may not be very convenient for them either ... but i think some of the earlier comments that it is not as inconvenient as people seem to convince themselves is worth pursuing as a motivator. besides, when most games are held, it can actually be a dream run to gosford. this doesn't really work in reverse. i have found gosford easy to get in and out of ... not so much north sydney

. not the first time charlesworth has angered the members ... and particularly coasties ... with his comments in the media. unfortunately not the first time the 'denial' has been far less than convincing either. luckily for him, most members will not consider this issue too deeply and will take the denial at face value

 

[Gratis]

I'm just pissed, again, at the uncertainty as to whether I'll have my club into the future.
I'm happy enough to push/tap into the north Sydney market as long as that's all it is.
The thought of becoming a north Sydney team in time makes me sick to the stomach though and despite the reassuring murmurings being made I remain unclear as to the the clubs longer term future/plans.
I love this club and if they ever did become a north Sydney club I would feel betrayed enough to walk away.

 

[adz]

So unfortunately we can throw out the speculation that this is all just a bad negotiation tactic for management rights of Bluetongue, since it's been confirmed the Mariners haven't even put in a tender.

Lawrie McKinna ‏@LawrieMcKinna 16h
Just so there is no confusion CCM never put in a tender to run Bluetongue Stadium, Council only received one tender which was unacceptable



And we can stick with what the Mariners have actually said, starting with Charlesworth's quotes;

''I think what's more important is that there's a market in North Sydney that I believe is hungry for a professional sporting identity,'' Mariners owner Mike Charlesworth said. ''It's just difficult, as we all know, building a sustainable model with your club based in a relatively small community like Gosford.''

''One of the things I really need to do coming in as new owner is to look at all possibilities and build a sustainable long-term future,'' Charlesworth said. ''It's not sustainable, the losses that we're making exceeding $1 million a year. It's not sustainable for the Central Coast or for any particular owner, certainly not myself. So something has got to change and if it doesn't change their won't be a Central Coast Mariners, full stop. Finito.

''We have to make this work because that's the alternative, there is no football club, full stop, unless we do something. So that means a lot of work on the Central Coast and a lot of work in other regions.'

And then the statement from the Mariners, first and last paragraphs;

Central Coast Mariners wish to refute speculation in this morning’s media suggesting the Club is seeking to relocate to the North Sydney region in the coming years.

(... middle bit with some sales talk about the COE, which has nothing to do with Mariners home games ...)

The Club will study the off-field success of its game against Wellington Phoenix in late 2013 and early 2014, before making any decision or commitment to play further matches at North Sydney Oval in the future.

So to condense all that down, the problem is the club is losing too much money, and the solution is to move home games to North Sydney Oval. Seems like a "the grass is greener on the other side" solution.

The main question for me is how exactly is having home games at NSO a solution to the money issues? Are they expecting bigger crowds? Less rent to pay? Neither sounds very long term.
Are they simply moving games, or are they going to set up marketing in the North Sydney area too?

Surely they don't think that simply moving games will be a huge success, so why not step up efforts to promote the club/games on the Coast instead?

Don't forget the club tried this on a few years ago with the Canberra game, and it was a disaster. Official figures are 5,193 which was heavily inflated.


A bit better communication from the club on this would be nice, because fair enough they are losing money and need to do something about it, but simply having a few games down the road isn't the magical solution they seem to think it is.

 

[Gratis]

and that might just be the thing, if the nso games don't get huge crowds then the whole thing becomes moot anyway and may just solve itself

surely once the CoE kicks into gear then the opportunity is there for the $ to start to balance out