The COVID Chat

[Omni]

So maybe they’ll let my parents fly out for my wedding and come back

 

[sydmariner]

 

[Corsair]

I see we're reclassified back into Greater Sydney again. I wish they'd make their mind up and stick with it. We can't travel now until 80% instead of the promised 70%.

Central Coast, Wollongong and Blue Mountains classified as Greater Metro Sydney with regional restrictions extended

More areas with "significant" COVID-19 case numbers are added to Greater Metro Sydney to prevent travel to regional NSW.

www.abc.net.au

 

[FFC Mariner]

We can however, travel to Sydney. Get Rona and bring it back.

 

[turbo]

Wouldn’t want those holiday rentals at the entrance to lose income over summer would we?

 

[Insertnamehere]

Wouldn’t want those holiday rentals at the entrance to lose income over summer would we?

Mainly Long Jetty with pro-covid crowd

 

[Corsair]

So can we now travel to blue mountains seeing as we're all Greater Sydney now?

 

[marinermick]

So can we now travel to blue mountains seeing as we're all Greater Sydney now?

Yes, on 11 October and vice versa

 

[Corsair]

Yes, on 11 October and vice versa

So we're going to be inundated with Sydney folk who can't travel to Regional NSW but can come to the coast now they've reclassified us. Probably because some politician has a holiday home here.

 

[FFC Mariner]

But being double vaxxed who cares?
That's kinda the point

 

[marinermick]

So we're going to be inundated with Sydney folk who can't travel to Regional NSW but can come to the coast now they've reclassified us. Probably because some politician has a holiday home here.

I will be able to see my father-In-law in Cronulla but not my parents in Newcastle. Conversely my father-in-law will be able to come up and see us here. My parents will also be able to come up from Newcastle to see me. All makes sense.

 

[Pirate Pete]

But being double vaxxed who cares?
That's kinda the point

With my son only being single vaxxed I do.
You know, just being a bit cautious for another few weeks won't do any harm.
In our household at least.

I will be able to see my father-In-law in Cronulla but not my parents in Newcastle. Conversely my father-in-law will be able to come up and see us here. My parents will also be able to come up from Newcastle to see me. All makes sense.

Hang on. So people can still travel to the coast from Newcastle?
I hadn't really followed the new rules that closely, but I presumed there would be no travel Coast to New either direction.

I did actually think that we were no longer regional as Barilaro would soon be announcing some pork barrelling for the regions.

 

[Corsair]

Can't trust anything they're saying until it actually happens, so many U-turns and "minor changes".

People need some certainty to get on with life and come out of this depressing state of suspended reality.

I won't be surprised if this 11th Oct date gets pushed out for "Greater Sydney" because of "medical advice". I get the impression they've used this 70% carrot to encourage people to get vax and now they'll change the rules at the last minute.

I bet they remove the travel within Greater Sydney at the last minute and keep it to just opening a few shops and the pub.

 

[Corsair]

Hang on. So people can still travel to the coast from Newcastle?

You can travel from a Regional area into a non-regional but not vice-versa, They can come here but we can't go there. Some bullshit rules about isolation after going to a non-regional area that probably no-one will follow but that's the crux of it.

 

[turbo]

I won't be surprised if this 11th Oct date gets pushed out for "Greater Sydney" because of "medical advice". I get the impression they've used this 70% carrot to encourage people to get vax and now they'll change the rules at the last minute.

She wont do it because you know how well that will go down. Not just with the public but she'll be roasted by the other states and it might even be enough to turn some currently sympathetic media outlets.

 

[FFC Mariner]

She darent. The right wing if her party are getting restless and she needs to fend off Perrotett (whatever his name is)
For him, deaths are the price if FrEeDuMBs

 

[pjennings]

Forgetting politics as at 2 days ago these are real numbers .

Denmark have removed all restrictions very successfully but they are at 75% of the total population double dosed with another couple of percent single dosed at this stage.

To compare apples with apples we are at 41.51% of our total population double-dosed with 20.93% having a single dose.

Assuming that we follow through on the first doses we are on track to reach 62% of our total population though with further supply made available to places that are short (i.e. everywhere except Sydney) this will likely rise. The problem across everywhere but Sydney is supply of the vaccine.

Talking 70%, 80%, freedom day etc is just a distraction. Sydney, not the regions, not the other states, is at a high level because they have taken the bulk of the Pfizer vaccine. Apart from anything else the time between jabs is shorter with Pfizer - so the lag time is less (unless of course you are in Vic where a lack of Pfizer because of redistribution to NSW has meant a doubling of time between shots).

Denmark has done well because of high vaccination rates but also their population density as a whole is less than other high vaccinated countries like Singapore.

So we need to get our rates up more but will still have to worry about high density areas in Sydney and Melbourne particularly.

 

[Corsair]

Denmark have removed all restrictions very successfully but they are at 75% of the total population double dosed with another couple of percent single dosed at this stage.

To compare apples with apples we are at 41.51% of our total population double-dosed with 20.93% having a single dose

That's not apples with apples.

Australia is approximately 7,741,220 sq km, while Denmark is approximately 43,094 sq km, making Denmark 0.56% the size of Australia.

Meanwhile, the population of Australia is ~25.5 million people (19.6 million fewer people live in Denmark).

Denmark fitted into Australia:

 

[pjennings]

Unless you are comparing Australia with Australia then you will never get a direct comparison

The point was to do with total vaccinate rates. We are not a high vaccination country or even a high vaccination state. I also mentioned population density when comparing Singapore with Melbourne and Sydney.

i.e. Vaccination rates are part of the answer, which are are nowhere on a par with with either Denmark or Singapore. The other part is population density. If you are in close proximity you will have more opportunity to spread the virus. Hence why Denmark is doing better than Singapore though both have similar vaccination rates.

 

[Coastalraider]

Talking 70%, 80%, freedom day etc is just a distraction. Sydney, not the regions, not the other states, is at a high level because they have taken the bulk of the Pfizer vaccine. Apart from anything else the time between jabs is shorter with Pfizer - so the lag time is less (unless of course you are in Vic where a lack of Pfizer because of redistribution to NSW has meant a doubling of time between shots).

Also technically correct but doesn't have as big an impact as assumed. NSW was initially allocated 32% of deliveries based on a per capita basis, and during the worst of the outbreak had a pre allocation of their future volume sent early, but only received 35.9%, so not the massive jump that people think it is with other states only being effected by less that 1% of total national volume. NSW is now entering the phase on NOT receiving its full 32% allocations so the shortfall is redistributed to other states.

The biggest factor in NSW's sudden jump is twofold - higher risk means more incentive for population to receive whatever vaccine is available, and the fact that as a higher risk area the gap between AZ doses has been narrowed, meaning a faster double dose increase.

Other states (vic aside) aren't receiving the message from their leaders as to the urgency of vaccine requirement, and are leaving themselves exposed to lockdown periods while their vaccine rates catch up. The NSW, Vic, ACT and NZ outbreaks all occurred from a single breach of quarantine/health restrictions, and other states that seem to think they are immune to these issues are kidding themselves. Qld in particular are incredibly lucky that the number of breaches they have had hasn't resulted in a significant outbreak.