FFC Mariner said:
I am English and I had hardly heard of RL before coming here.
Its a minor variation of Rugby that is unlikely to survive in its current form over say the next 20 odd years.
TBH, I cannot see the NRL surviving in it's current format for too many more years.
They are losing advertising and sponsors, they are having problems within their ranks which is impacting upon junior recruitment, and they are starting to lose their breeding grounds as the country club comps struggle to fill their playing rosters (an article in SMH this week had the Country RL asking the NRL clubs to loan out their bench warmer type players so they have full complements in their club comps).
http://www.smh.com.au/news/lhqnews/provincial-teams-ask-for-surplus-players/2009/08/07/1249350685217.html
The code itself will probably survive for quite some time, but the NRL is one big hungry mutha to feed and keep alive. ATM a large part of that income is coming from Pay TV and FTA TV rights.
With media stocks taking a hammering and new technology bypassing the traditional TV networks quite a bit, the value of a product like the NRL is going to be under review next time it's broadcasting rights are up for tender.
I really do think the days of nearly a $1Billion media deal for NRL is over.
The question is: How is the NRL going to handle the reduction when it occurs, something will have to be cut? Junior funding, Media Marketing, Advertising, what is going to be cut?
Also, the NRL is a partnership with several stakeholders, one of which is News Limited. So long as the comp. rates on Foxtel and sells the newspapers, News Ltd. will probably continue to have an investment. But if ratings fall or circulation drops, expects them to back away.
At the peripheral of the NRL circus is the biased commentators and those whose living is derived from the comp.
Many of them will find similar employment if the NRL is divided back into State Comps like the old NSW RL and QRL comps were, back in the day. The NSW comp would still be reasonably strong and quite well backed by many segments of society. Some of these commentators and journos are getting quite old. Bob Fulton, for example, is probably over 60, Sterlo is probably over 50, Lord knows how old Ray Warren is! That idiot Buzz Rothfield doesn't look too young either and even the likes of Rebecca Wilson and Paul Kent are probably best described as mature aged persons.
But as other sports gained momentum, like the A-League has in recent years, then so too, the fans would drift away and lament about the loss of the NRL and the grand stadia they once played in.
Let's face it too, the International side of RL is quite a farce. It is only really England, New Zealand and Australia.
Without significant money to hype a series & attract crowds, it wouldn't seem feasible to stage Internationals in say, ANZ Stadium. And once every two or three years is not enough frequency in these days of massive immediate information technology, to keep the fans' interest burning.
So, unless the NRL can devise a strategy to survive a significant decrease in revenue from broadcasting rights, and do so in such a way that Joe Public doesn't smell the fear (no one likes going to an event that is un- cool to be seen at, do they?), they are going to struggle.