45k today. We shouldn't focus on case numbers.
All the same, the fact that they've gone from 22,577 to 45,098 in a week is a serious concern because it's doubling in a week.
The biggest worry is that hospitalisations, ICU patients and patients requiring ventilation are on the same trajectory:
- hospitalisations up to 1795 (from 903 7 days ago),
- ICU patients are up to 145 (from 79) and
- patients requiring ventilation are up to 40 (from 26 a week ago).
What we really want to see is even some sign that the growth is tapering, but there's nothing. We're just doubling every handful of days.
With Delta, we had the following peaks:
- Hospitalisations: 1268
- ICU: 242
- Ventilation: 123
So we're past the prior hospitalisation record, but at 60% of the ICU numbers and 35% of the ventilation peak. That's probably because for people hospitalised, a combination of the effect of vaccines and a milder variant mean that as a proportion of active cases, people are doing vastly better.
But there's still a proportion of people who are getting really sick and who will die. If the denominator (case numbers) keeps getting bigger, the numerator (deaths, etc.) will go up with it.
We're not heading to good places.