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2010 Election Predictions Thread

curious

Well-Known Member
Maybe they are,maybe they're not......whatever happens there will still be plenty of immigrants coming to this country.

It's just a shame that the 'boat people' thing is allowed to be blown out of proportion and become a vote decider when imo there are a hell of a lot of more important issues the voter should be thinking about regardless of who you end up voting for.

Both partys play us for mugs and to a large extent we probably are.

Whole heartily agree. Highly disproportionate political attention, at the expense of major matters.

But isn't that it's purpose? Kill two birds with one stone by focusing attention on a matter that wins the vote of the insular minded, devoid of the savy or motivation to check for themselves how right or wrong the spin may be.

And, in doing so, deflect attention from the major issues in the far more difficult political basket.

I'm afraid voters have been stupid enough to get sucked in by 1+1=3 since Adam was a boy.
 

kevrenor

Well-Known Member
Arabmariner said:
Both parties play us for mugs and to a large extent we probably are.
A plague on both their houses!
Right, my vote sorted!

"The Australian Democrats will be fielding 12 House of Reps candidates in NSW:

- David Robinson (Richmond in Northern NSW)
- Julia Melland (Page in Northern NSW)
- Dean Winter (Newcastle)
...- Daniel Pearce (North Sydney)
- Brett Paterson (Sydney)
- Josh Carmont (Kingsford Smith in Sydney's Eastern Suburbs)
- Perry Garofani (Grayndler in Sydney's inner west)
- Ronaldo Villaver (Greenway in western Sydney)
- Keith Darley(Chifley in western Sydney)
- Clinton Mead (Macarthur in south-west Sydney)
- Greg Butler (Hume near Canberra)
- Steve Bingle (Farrar in south-western NSW)

And with Fiona Clancy & Jen Mitchell as NSW Senate candidates the Australian Democrats are committed to offering voters a progressive alternative in this election."

As an old Democrats NSW VP, candidate, and supporter it will be:

Senate - Dems team, preference any decent independent, Greens (even Rhiannon), then will number the rest (must work on that one)

Bennelong - Sex Party lady, then Peters from the Greens, then I couldn't stand the Libs to get it back the way they've carried on since Howard got his, so it will be the TV personality over the Tennis Pro/TV personality
 

dibo

Well-Known Member
Great blog called Grogs Gamut absolutely nails Abbott today:

Sunday, August 1, 2010
Election 2010: Day 16 (or let’s ask some questions)

I just got home from watching Inception and so I’m not sure if everything is real or some dopey dream because today I kept hearing on ABC news and other assorted outlets that Julia Gillard was being dogged by more claims about Kevin Rudd – this time that 10 years ago he had conspired with the Alexander Downer to leak information that would embarrass Laurie Brereton. Apparently Julia was dogged by the issue even though Rudd denied it – and it threatening to sue – and also by around 8:30am this morning Alexander Downer – the very person the Sunday Telegraph had used as its primary source – was saying the story was a load of bull:

"The interpretation placed on my comments to the Sunday Telegraph is wrong," he said.

"Kevin Rudd was not used by me or other members of the Liberal Party as a so-called 'double agent' to leak material against other members of the Labor Party."

But did we need to hear Downer say that? Anyone with a skerrick of intelligence could see that the story smelt of bullshit. downer

First off, Alexander Downer probably hates Kevin Rudd more than he does anyone on this planet. Kevin Rudd thinks the same of Downer. To think that these to vicious enemies would ever work together on anything is utterly preposterous.

But here’s the real kicker. If this story was true don’t you think Downer might have used it earlier – you know at a time when he and the Liberal Party were fighting for their political lives, like oh I don’t know… the 2007 election when Kevin Rudd was actually leader of the opposition?? For someone to believe this story they have to believe that Downer decided not to tell this damaging story in the 2007 election because he was waiting to tell it when Kevin Rudd was no longer leader of the ALP or PM, but was in fact just a back bencher.

Yep, because of course the Liberal Party left so much in reserve when it came to attacking Kevin Rudd in 2007.

Sometimes you want to give the media in this country a collective Biff Tannen slap to the head and say “Hello!! Anybody home?? Think McFly! Think!”

I’d also like to give them slap for giving Andrew Robb any credence for suggesting the ALP giving journalists copies of things said by Tony Abbott constitutes a “smear campaign”.

That’s a smear campaign? Please, that’s just giving journalists free research – any journalist worth their salt should already have those quotes on hand and be ready to use them – like Laurie Oakes did today. In his interview with Oakes today Abbott was squirming and umming and ahhing his way through as Oakes threw more and more of his old quotes back at him. Abbott has a terrible poker face – when he is in trouble it’s obvious, and it is even more obvious because he ramps up the umms and ahhs as his mind tries desperately to think of a way to squirm out.

Anyone interviewing Abbott one on one who doesn’t get the ums and ahhs, should know she or he has been beaten.

In fact a good majority of the Canberra Press Gallery should have been watching the Oakes’ interview this morning and looking down at the ground wondering why they hadn’t asked any of those questions. Because I have to say, while it was a good interview, it’s not like Oakes was dragging stuff from the never-never. This was all stuff that Abbott has said in the last three years or written in his book. Yesterday when he was announcing his dental plan for ADF families Latika Bourke asked him, about the national dental plan policy he had written about in his book Battlelines. It was a good question – journalists should know his book off by heart – it’s a gold mine of things to throw at him.

The best journalists have memories like elephants. When a politician says something that contradicts a previously stated position, the good ones jump on it – the best ones will have gone through second reading speeches, or boring on the stump speeches to nobodies. There’s gold to be found there.

If Robb thinks that telling journalists about things candidates said in the past is a smear, then I guess he’d be worried if someone reminded the media that back in 2007 Robb was the idiot going around telling journalists that there was a stack of ALP candidates who were ineligible because they hadn’t resigned their Government positions. The only problem was that Robb it seems had based all this on a Google search of names and that his claims were completely bull. I always remember that little episode whenever someone tells me Robb is a sharp operator. And so should we all – just because Andrew Robb says something does not make it so.

But you know what is a smear campaign? How about talking about whether or not a PM has children, or is married, or whether her partner had speeding fines incurred prior to his meeting her. That’s a smear.

If the ALP was engaged in really attacking Abbott they might be reminding the media that in February 12 2009 Abbott missed five crucial votes on the economic stimulus plan because he was asleep in his office after drinking a couple bottles of wine….

But I digress…

Yesterday on twitter there was a little discussion about my Friday post on the press packs following the leaders. News.ltd journalist, Ben Packham, put out a tweet asking for questions that we’d like them to ask. At the time I was busy doing real life stuff, but I said to him that it was hard to come up with questions without knowing what the press conference was to be about.

This of course is wrong. Abbott has one policy that he should be asked about with regard to whatever he is announcing, because he mentions it at every press conference. Namely:

“Pay back the debt”

I’d like someone to ask him “WHY?”

Why do we need to pay it back when interest rates are now 2.25% lower than they were when John Howard was in power and Australia was in surplus?

Why do we need to pay back the debt when inflation is falling – meaning the deficit is obviously not putting pressure on prices?

Why do we need to pay back the debt when we obviously are paying it back already? Does he think people who have a mortgage should stop everything and pay it all off now?

Why is it that he says the Government can’t afford to spend on infrastructure or disabled education because we have a deficit that is actually only 6% of our GDP, and yet families with a total mortgage that is around 618% of their annual income still find the money to buy a car, spend money on kids schooling, go on holidays, and even buy luxury items?

If he says that Governments have to make choices and can’t spend everything they’d like to, ask him doesn't that mean that he is just using the debt as an excuse when the real reason he is not spending more on disabled education is because he would rather spend the money elsewhere on more Liberal Party constituent friendly spending – like ADF dental coverage?

If he mentions the $100m a day debt figure ask him why that matters when Australia’s taxation revenue is around $881.5m a day? Does he think Australia is in danger of defaulting?government debt graph

If he or Hockey mentions the concerns over “crowding out” ask him why given Australia operates in an open financial system where we borrow and lend on the international market, and that given the international annual debt market is around $82.2 trillion dollars, why does he think the total Australian Government's bond issue of $151billion (or about 0.18%) is crowding out borrowers?

Ask Abbott why do we need to pay back the debt when the Reserve Bank Governor Glenn Stevens says "There is virtually no net public debt in the country at all in contrast to much of the developed world. The most recent figures out of Canberra was a peak of five or six per cent of GDP. So far from that being the highest in history, it is closer to the lowest."?

Ask him if he thinks Mr Stevens wrong? Ask him if he thinks he and Joe Hockey understand Australia's financial position better than does the head of the leading financial institution in the country?

Ask Abbott why if the debt is putting pressure on prices why aren’t interest rates going up this week? Why isn’t the Reserve Bank agreeing with him? Hell, ask him why aren’t the ABS inflation figures agreeing with him?

Ask him why does the Liberal Party advert mention cost of living pressures featuring a woman in a supermarket when food prices over the last 12 months have risen by less than the CPI average? If he mentions electricity prices ask him how will he do anything to reduce them? If he mentions a carbon tax ask him what did a carbon tax have to do with electricity prices going up in the past 12 months when there is no carbon tax yet?

Ask him why do we need to pay back the debt when under the entire period of the Menzies Government we had Government debt of over 20 percent and yet we had a period of strong prosperity?

And when Andrew Robb or Tony Abbott says utter bullshit like:

Six interest rate rises in a row, much of it due to the reckless spending which is added to the debt at the rate of $700 million a week. That’s a new hospital a week we’re borrowing as a country.

Instead of saying “thank you”, how about pull him up and (once again) point out interest rates are 2.25% lower than under John Howard when the budget was in surplus, and also ask if that means when he is in Government and the budget is in surplus they will build a hospital a week? Why when John Howard was in Government and the budget was in surplus didn’t they build a hospital a week? Or it is just that Robb's comparison is utterly stupid?

I mean geez, guys! Tony Abbott should be getting drilled every day on this stuff. It’s important stuff; it’s the whole box and dice. If you don’t understand how an economy works then you shouldn't be in power, and Abbott’s own inane policy of “Pay back the debt” in itself reveals he doesn’t understand how the economy works.

And look let’s just quickly go over to IR and Workchoices, because it again goes to his honesty and ability to exaggerate when under pressure. In his recent 7:30 Report appearance he said:

TONY ABBOTT: But, Kerry, no democratic politician can or should defy the wishes of the electorate.
KERRY O'BRIEN: But this is the wishes of the electorate that you suddenly came to a view about a week and a half ago.
TONY ABBOTT: But, I am a party leader now. I'm not just a philosopher, I'm not just a pundit. I'm not just a speculator in a university department. I am a party leader. And party leaders have to respect what they're hearing from the electorate and also from the people who will be impacted by any change.

Ask him was he party leader when in his Budget Reply speech in May he said:

We all know that the former government’s workplace reforms went too far but they also helped to create more than two million new jobs, lift real wages by 20 per cent and more than double net household wealth between 1996 and 2007. The coalition will seek to take the unfair dismissal monkey off the back of small businesses, which are more like families than institutions. We will make Labor’s transitional employment agreements less transitional and Labor’s individual flexibility agreements more flexible because we have faith in Australian workers who are not as easily pushed around and exploited as the ACTU’s dishonest ad campaign is already making out.

Ask him if they can’t believe what he said only two months ago in a carefully prepared statement, why should they believe anything he says during the campaign?

And then get him onto climate change – ask if he thinks we need a price on carbon to reduce carbon emissions. If he says that we can reduce them through incentives, ask him why he does not support a market based mechanism but instead prefers a system that was shown to completely fail under the Soviet Union during the entire twentieth century. Ask him if he believes the best driver of innovation in the private sector is the profit motive or Government incentives? Are there other sectors of the economy that could do without a price signal and instead operate just on Government incentives?

Look I don’t have the ALP’s list of statements by Abbott – these are just easy economic 101 type questions that need to be asked – the trick though is to be able to follow up any fob offs – perhaps the media pack should act like a pack. One of the reasons I complained about the lack of policy questions from the media is mostly because policy questions are the ones that really bring politicians unstuck.

A good sharp policy based question (and it needs research and understanding of what you’re asking – so yes, there is a bit of work required) can utterly destroy a politician. And I don’t mean “how much will the MRRT increase the price of a loaf of bread”. I mean questions like “why are you proposing to sell Medibank Private to pay off the debt when the debt is already projected to be paid off in three years time, and your selling MBP doesn't mean you’ll pay off the debt any sooner?” Would you sell your car to pay off part of your mortgage even though you were already able to afford the repayments AND if your selling the car wasn't actually going to enable you to pay off your mortgage any sooner? I seriously can’t believe Abbott hasn’t been drilled on selling MBP yet.

So there you go, there’s my questions. Maybe Abbott can answer them – if so well done.
 

midfielder

Well-Known Member
Kevin 07 takes aim


007.jpg
 

curious

Well-Known Member
Re- Q & A tonight. Barnaby Joyce should have been drowned at birth. Bigoted, dumb as an emu, a wimp and a nerd. Craig Emerson only a very slight improvement and Peter Dutton is a waste of a good root and has a smartarse, mummies boy attitude just waiting to be thumped. I think the only man left in politics is Bronwyn Bishop.
 

midfielder

Well-Known Member
Curious

I missed it working ..... but take your word for it...

HHHHHHHHHHHMMMMMMMMMMMM Question for all

Julia says she is going to come clean on who she really is......... from the family guy ... could this be the answer ..

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LvkTdyXVh3U
 

marinermick

Well-Known Member
Curious

I missed it working ..... but take your word for it...

HHHHHHHHHHHMMMMMMMMMMMM Question for all

Julia says she is going to come clean on who she really is......... from the family guy ... could this be the answer ..

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LvkTdyXVh3U

snap poll amongst your forumites:

who is now likely to vote for labour as a result of the ten million dollar annoucement?

i was always going to vote labour anyway, especially for deb o'neill more than anything
 

dibo

Well-Known Member
From Lateline tonight my local member (the infrastructure minister Anthony Albanese) talking about Labor announcing high speed rail from Newcastle to Sydney. Will take time to do but will be excellent for the Central Coast (and the Hunter) once done.
 

Bex

Well-Known Member
Another 'promise' to be broken once they get in......just like the COE 'bribe' !

Extremely negative post Arabmariner. What's this "COE bribe" you're talking about and why would a Sydney Newcastle high speed rail be the same?
 

midfielder

Well-Known Member
Stopped listening this week have turned out and have no idea what either leader has said or done.. same for the parties... I wonder if I am alone or are their other like me...
 

Jazzie

Sheer joy at beating the scum :)
From Lateline tonight my local member (the infrastructure minister Anthony Albanese) talking about Labor announcing high speed rail from Newcastle to Sydney. Will take time to do but will be excellent for the Central Coast (and the Hunter) once done.

This old acorn gets wheeled out regularly, be it a state of federal election. Lots of expensive feasibility studies, which quietly get put in the bottom draw when it all gets too hard. Same as the fast ferry service to Sydney.
 

Jazzie

Sheer joy at beating the scum :)
Stopped listening this week have turned out and have no idea what either leader has said or done.. same for the parties... I wonder if I am alone or are their other like me...

+1 ..... however I did have a door knock from the local liberal candidate. Seemed a pretty stand up and genuine guy. Spent about 15 mins talking about issues.
 

Bex

Well-Known Member
That's what they're good at - talking about issues (as opposed to getting stuff done about issues especially prior to an election)
 

Arabmariner

Well-Known Member
Extremely negative post Arabmariner. What's this "COE bribe" you're talking about and why would a Sydney Newcastle high speed rail be the same?
Check out Jazzie's post above for a quick answer to that ;-)

Or go back 3 years and look at all Kevin 07's hollow promises that never saw the light of day.

Proffesional liars the lot of them.
 

midfielder

Well-Known Member
LOL .... actually hehehe hahahahah rofl...

Walking tho Eastwood I see a mate I play football with handing out Liberal how to vote stuff... went up and said labour have you out numbered here today about 6 to 1 [in people handing out how to vote stuff]..

So we are having a chat about tomorrows match .... when out of the blue up comes John Alexander local candidate for the libs...

Small piece of background info here I am a swinging voter and it is to my eternal shame that I have voted for the winning PM since 1972 when Gough said no more war so he got my vote ... So everytime we have an election I say who has my vote to my football team the night before and over the last 25 or so years we have been together I have built up quite a following .. who is mid going to vote ...

So here is me and my mate talking about tomorrows game .. the winner more than likely tho to the grand final... and who pops up but JA ....

So my mate tells JA I am a swinger .. and of my past record ... JA is impressed and starts on at me about why I should vote for Tony and how evil the labour party are ....

I am annoyed as I am far more concerned about tomorrows grand final than about talking about Pinko Julia or to the right of Hilter Tony...

JA keeps at me ... what is important to you.... so I told him Julia promised the Mariners 10 million will you better it... he is stunned ... I mean how greedy can a guy get is going tho his mind I am sure...

So then I tell him the truth as an accountant I love people who make tax complex as it more money for me.... he asked me to explain... and I say ... John here is a question..

GST is defined as

a) A good simple tax,
B) A goods & services tax,
c) A God Sent Tax.

He choose B, I said naaaa its (C) a God sent tax.. look at all the work it has given me.. and Paul for heaven sake he gave us Capital Gains Tax, FBT, a new Super Tax i.e. Super Guarantte, 9% etc... what more could I ask for ... Now the labour and this carbon thing and mining tax (modified so its more complex).

I ask what is TA going to make complex ... my mate is making faces at me to shut up... but JA takes all this in and starts to debate me... All the while I am trying to keep a straight face and stop from laughing ...

In the end I said I had to go and that I had not listened to anyone over the last week .. but be sure that TA matches the Mariners 10 million or goes better..
 

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