OK, I pulled the 5% figure out of thin air... but since you want figures to be backed up by facts, please show me the facts supporting your figures of "4-5k with an extra 2-3k fair weather supporters". You can't... just as I can't, just as midfielder can't with his 25%.
I came to those numbers as an estimate after following the crowd numbers this year, taking into account who we were playing, ACL games included.
When you are on top of the table playing a lower team with little support, often due to distance, and you get 7-8k, I would guess at least 2k of those would not be there if the team were not playing well.
The firstACL game this year probably give a a better indication of the truly rusted on.
10k was often quoted as the break even number for Bluetongue. To only just scrape that number when the team is at the top and playing fantastic football is not enough. To remain viable this club must do something to find a significant increase in support or it will enter an extinction vortex. Poor results next year; falling attendance, more expense per game, less attractive to sponsors, impossible to find investors.
I dread this happening, but it is a distinct possibility.
The Northern Suburbs are a clear underexploited area with already established links.
Games will not be moved there as there are no suitable grounds. I do not include the beaches in this idea, they are just to far out of the way.
However the future of the Mariners may involve including Northern Sydney in their identity.
The only other way I see support increasing is the signing of a MAJOR marquee of the level of Beckham or ADP, much bigger than any others including Ono and Heskey. Luca$h or other past it Socceroos would not be enough.
Then flog it for all the publicity you can get.
Unfortunately I do not see anyone putting up the money nor anyone else driving the publicity which is easier to do in a major city like Sydney or Melbourne.
As for not exhausting the local market, when you have a champion team, consistently successful over 8 seasons, fighting for the premiership and winning the championship all the while flogging that the mariners are the Central Coast team, the number of bums on seats this year looks to me as though the local market has reached its peak. This is not knocking the local market, as is often pointed out, as a percentage of the population Mariners attract more support than any other club.
This makes me think we have squeezed the local market for all it is worth.
Winter is coming, we need to prepare.